Why Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky departs White House without results
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in Trump's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia done," he declared.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.
The following day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – including land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.